世界未來的新秩序將由中美共同掌控

The new world order in the future will be jointly controlled by China and the United States

作者：段躍初

Author: Duan yuechu

 

        今天，筆者在網上看到發(fā)自《防務新觀察》的一篇訪談文章，文章認為：世界秩序從來是由大國決定的，二戰(zhàn)中是由美國、英國、俄國三大國決定了戰(zhàn)后的世界秩序。今天，應該由中美兩國來決定未來的世界秩序，中美GDP和科技力量的總和超過全球的40%，軍力總和超過全球的50%，美國吃不掉中國，中國吃不掉美國，美國即便拉幫結派。也擊不垮中國，因些美國必須與中國通過談判與博弈達成未來世界秩序的共識，如果美國不能做到這一點，美國將面臨一戰(zhàn)前歐洲的形勢，即常年存在沖突，雖然在部分問題會被立即解決，但難免會在某個時刻失去控制，拜登政府上臺后無意與中國開戰(zhàn)，卻沒有放松對華軍事挑釁，我們可以相信，中美高層可以達成相遇的管控規(guī)則，但美國長年挑釁中國，難免會擦槍走火。

 

       Today, the author saw an interview article from "New Defense Observation" on the Internet. The article thought:The world order has always been determined by big powers. In World War II, the world order after the war was determined by the United States, Britain and Russia. Today, it is up to China and the United States to decide the future world order. The combined GDP and scientific and technological strength of China and the United States account for more than 40% of the world's total, and the combined military strength accounts for more than 50% of the world's total. The United States can't eat China, China can't eat the United States, and the United States can't even form cliques. If the United States can not achieve this, it will face the situation in Europe before World War I, that is, there will be conflicts all the year round. Although some problems will be solved immediately, they will inevitably lose control at some point. Biden administration has no intention to fight with China, but it has not let go We can believe that the high-level officials of China and the United States can reach a control rule of meeting each other when they are provoking China militarily. However, if the United States has been provoking China for many years, it is inevitable that it will go wrong.

 

       一戰(zhàn)就是擦槍走火釀成的，目前全世界面臨的情況，比過去危險得多，因為美中雙方都有高科技武器，美中雙方的高科技武器可能會導致非常激烈的沖突。

 

      The first World War was caused by a brush fire. At present, the situation faced by the whole world is much more dangerous than in the past, because both the United States and China have high-tech weapons, which may lead to very fierce conflicts.

 

      文章認為：新的國際秩序只能由中美兩國達成共識來建立，世界回不到過去了，拜登想通過拉幫結伙，制定共同的規(guī)則來限制中國，美國是否有可能與盟友一起培養(yǎng)外交政策思維。并獲得其它國家的理解，尋找世界秩序，美國盟友各自有各自的利益和算盤，想通過與他們協(xié)商達成共識，建立新的世界秩序，無異于癡人說夢這是不可能的事，一來人多嘴雜，很難達成共識，二來這樣達成的共識，未必符合美國的利益，三來沒有中國的參與，達成共識也白搭。

 

      The article thinks:The new international order can only be established by consensus between China and the United States. The world can't go back to the past. Biden wants to restrict China by ganging up and making common rules. Is it possible for the United States to cultivate foreign policy thinking with its allies. It is impossible for US allies to reach a consensus and establish a new world order through consultation with other countries. On the one hand, it is difficult to reach a consensus because there are too many people to talk about. On the other hand, it may not be in the interests of the United States. On the other hand, it is impossible to reach a consensus without China's participation It's no use reaching a consensus.

 

      未來世界的形成不能一蹴而就，進入新世紀，中國加速復興綜合實力與美國接近，以GDP總量來說，2000年中國僅為美國的十六分之一，但2020年中國GDP已經超過了美國的70%。鑒于美國已經無力維持二戰(zhàn)以來建立的自由主義國際秩序，特朗普四年不斷退群，擺脫大國責任，想讓美國輕裝前行，特朗普執(zhí)政破壞了美國二戰(zhàn)建立起來的世界秩序，松動了美國的同盟體系，拜登上臺之后，喊出“美國回來了”的口號，妄圖回到特朗普之前的世界，但世界回不到過去了，美國必須記住國際問題沒有最終解決方案。每一個解決方案都打開了另一系列問題的大門。

 

      In the new century, China's comprehensive strength is close to that of the United States. In 2000, China's GDP is only one sixteenth of that of the United States, but in 2020, China's GDP has exceeded 70% of that of the United States. In view of the fact that the United States has been unable to maintain the liberal international order established since World War II, trump has been withdrawing from the group for four years, getting rid of the responsibility of big powers, and trying to make the United States move forward with light weight. Trump's administration destroyed the world order established by the United States in World War II and loosened the United States alliance system. After Biden came to power, he called out the slogan "America is back" in an attempt to return to the world before trump But the world can't go back. The United States must remember that there is no final solution to international problems. Each solution opens the door to another set of problems.

 

      文章認為：中美達成共識，不是一件容易的事，但必須努力做才有成功，美國可能會發(fā)現，與中國這樣一個國家很快在某些方面更領先的對手談判是很難的，拜登政府必須正視中華文明，是一個與西方文明同樣是一個偉大的文明，中國是一個與美國同樣偉大的國家，在未來世界秩序上達成共識才有可能，美國必須理解,中國與美國有不同看法是正常的，雙方只有求同存異、各讓一步，才有可能達成共識，

 

      The article thinks:It is not easy for China and the United States to reach a consensus, but we must work hard to succeed. The United States may find it difficult to negotiate with China, a country that is soon ahead in some aspects. The Biden administration must face up to Chinese civilization, which is as great a civilization as Western civilization, and China is as great a country as the United States in the future It is only possible to reach a consensus on the world order. The United States must understand that it is normal for China and the United States to have different views. Only by seeking common ground while reserving differences and making concessions can they reach a consensus,

 

      文章認為：未來的世界秩序，只能由中美兩國來決定，中美文化、制度、價值觀的不同達成共識不容易，但雙方必須努力，關鍵的問題，美國要接受中國是一個偉大的國家，能夠平等地通過談判和博弈，對未來國際秩序形成共識，但目前來看，拜登政府還難以接受中國與美國共同掌控，中國有句俗語：不打不成交，美國還不服氣，還想與中國再打一打，中國只有在反擊中讓美國感到了痛，才有可能迫使美國轉變態(tài)度，回歸理性。

 

      The article thinks:The future world order can only be decided by China and the United States. It is not easy for China and the United States to reach a consensus on different cultures, systems and values. However, both sides must work hard. The key problem is that the United States should accept that China is a great country and can reach a consensus on the future international order through equal negotiations and games. However, at present, it is difficult for the Biden administration to accept China and the United States There is a saying in China: no fight, no deal. The United States is not convinced and wants to fight with China again. Only when China makes the United States feel pain in the counterattack can it force the United States to change its attitude and return to rationality.

 

       中美的未來是樂觀的，未來十年是中美戰(zhàn)略的摩擦期，在此期間美國對維持全球霸權還不死心，但十年之后，中國GDP超過美國，美國就打壓不動中國了，就不再會幻想，通過遏制中國維持其全球霸權了，這時美國政府會思考是否應該與中國協(xié)商，未來世界的樣式了。

 

      The future of China and the United States is optimistic. The next decade will be a period of strategic friction between China and the United States. During this period, the United States will not give up on maintaining global hegemony. However, ten years later, when China's GDP exceeds that of the United States, the United States will not be able to suppress China and will no longer fantasize about maintaining its global hegemony by containing China. At this time, the U.S. government will consider whether it should negotiate with China on the future world style .

 

      作者是北京中國未來研究會會員

      The writer is a member of The China Society for the Future in Beijing

      作者姓名：段躍初 Duan Yuechu

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